How Much Risk Is Acceptable?

This post was originally shared in December of 2016.

I love learning new stuff.

I love relearning old stuff.

It wasn’t a planned thing but last week I was asked by my friend Denise if I wanted to go to the Mountaineers Leadership Conference with her. She is a hike leader and involved in her Foothills branch and she knows I am working on being a hike leader for the Everett branch.

Going meant giving up an opportunity to hike on that weekend but the forecast was iffy so I figured it was a good investment. I wasn’t sure what to expect but maybe it would motivate me to be more involved in programs. I was really glad I went!

Like all good conferences, we received a goodie bag when we arrived and an opportunity to select classes for the day on a wide variety of topics. There was also a raffle for some pretty cool gear. Unfortunately, I didn’t win any.

There were so many choices of workshops being offered it was hard to choose. Topics such as “Innovation, Leadership, and the Healing Effect of Nature” and “An Outdoors for Everyone: Conversations on Inclusion.” I picked sessions that I hoped would help me be more safe in the outdoors and help others, as well. Here’s a synopsis of what I learned and relearned, most of which I can use to assess risk and conditions when I adventure outdoors.

Weather Predictions For Hikers

Cliff Mass is a climatologist and he gave a talk, “How Can You Be A Good Consumer of Weather Forecasting Information?” He is a professor at the University of Washington and considered an expert in his field.

What is the #1 question he gets asked?

Sorry, the answer is, “You might as well flip a coin.”

Why Sequim has the same rainfall as southern California.

His main points were:

Weather.com has the most accurate and up-to-date forecasts. because it is COMPLETELY automated. You won’t have to deal with hype AKA “Snowaggedon” or “Storm of the Century”.
There are over 1000 weather apps you can load onto your phone for the latest forecasts.
Some of the best apps are from The Weather Channel, Radarscope and Dark Sky.
Ice is the #1 weather condition for deaths.
Weather forecasting is about probability and guessing. The further you forecast out, the less accurate.

Those cool lenticular clouds? They mean a weather change is on it’s way A watery sun? A storm is on it’s way!

He also talked about the difference between the snow level and the freezing level. It takes about 1000ft below the freezing level before precipitation turns to rain so you will see snow lower.

You can find Cliff over on his own blog or on the University of Washington website.

Mountain Rescue

Larry Colagiovanni from Seattle Mountain Rescue gave a talk titled “Lessons From The Front Lines: avoiding and dealing with accidents in the backcountry.” He is the chair for the organization and had quite a few stories to share.

He reminded us that accidents happen to all kinds of people for all kinds of reasons. So all you armchair posters on Facebook can stop with the judgement, okay?

His main points were:

Think about, “What Can Go Wrong?”
Practice, practice, practice.
Have a group emergency plan.
Be smart, think first and slow down.
Safety comes first, don’t make a situation worse.
Don’t make assumptions about the experience, roles or leadership within your group.
Reflect and learn.
Don’t be afraid to share you mistakes, that is how we all learn. (See? That’s why I talk about all the “ooops” I make, so YOU all can learn!)

Important questions your group should ask before heading out:

He finished with some humbling stories of his own.

You can find Seattle Mountain Rescue on Facebook and Twitter.

Dehydrating For Backpacking

We had some a session around lunch time and I joined this one with Denise…

Cheryl Taubert from Happy Tramper shared her secrets for backpacking food! Of course, I had to go. She put a lot of work into her workshop and folks got to sample some of her recipes. Denise says they were all delicious (I let her sample since none were gluten or nightshade free).

Wilderness Conservation

There was a session on conservation that had a panel of representatives from local agencies. I went in preparation for Hiker Lobby Day in February, I want to be able to speak more eloquently about the needs in our state. A variety of agencies were represented, including the Evergreen Mountain Biking Alliance.

The best news was about how outdoor recreation will now be included when figuring out the GDP. An estimated 646 billion dollars contribute to the national economy and it will be easier to talk with legislators about it’s preservation.

And last but not least…

Avalanche Risk Mitigation

This year is the earliest that Northwest Avalanche Center has opened for the season. My last session was with Scott Schnell of the Northwest Avalanche Center. I was looking for a refresher on how to be safe out on our winter hikes and snowshoes.

Someday I will take one of those AIARE classes, but for now this will help me know my limits. He asked a very important question, “How much risk is acceptable?”

He asked some questions that ask for judgement calls. “Is it okay to be caught in an avalanche on a Mountaineers event?”

Some key notes from his talk:

Avoid start zones (places an avalanche can start).
30-45 degree slope angles are only one part
You want to avoid the slide path and run out areas, as well.
Ask yourself each time, what is the risk? Constant risk assessment is crucial.
NWAC has a You Tube channel!!!

I do want to mention that the opening and closing speakers were awesome, too. And inspiring. Mike Gauthier, Chief of Staff for the Superintendent at Yosemite National Park and Kara Stone, GM for the Seattle REI Flagship store. Such commitment to getting others outdoors!

How do you learn about current issues and topics related to your love of the outdoors? Are you part of an outdoor group or organization?

Learn more about the Mountaineers on their website, HERE.

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